House of the Dragon Basically Confirms that Daemon vs Aemond Will Take Place in Season 4

First off, some very good news: House of the Dragon has officially been renewed for Season 4. HBO announced the renewal during a slate presentation, and Season 4 is expected to premiere in 2028.
Showrunner Ryan Condal has also mentioned that Season 4 is likely the final one. At the same time, Season 3 will hit in summer 2026. So yeah — we’ve got at least two more seasons, and they’re building toward something big. Beware that massive spoilers from the Book Fire and Blood follow below!

Why The Video Sounds Like a Massive Hint

The House of the Dragon & GOT official Instagram account confirmed yearly drops with their post on 21st November. And, it had us thinking.

The Instagram post seems to show a scene that strongly evokes the Battle Above the Gods Eye — Caraxes fighting Vhagar, Daemon facing off against Aemond. That’s one of the most iconic and brutal moments from the Fire & Blood books.

In Fire & Blood, during the Targaryen civil war known as the Dance of the Dragons, Daemon (on Caraxes) and Aemond (on Vhagar) duel in the skies above the lake called the Gods Eye. According to the book, both men drive each other to death: Daemon leaps onto Vhagar mid-flight and uses his sword Dark Sister to stab Aemond through his (already blinded) eye — and then both dragons crash into the lake in a devastating fall.

If that’s what the video is hinting at (Caraxes vs Vhagar, Aemond vs Daemon), then two big implications follow:

Daemon and Aemond must survive through Season 3 — because this duel hasn’t happened yet in the show, but if they’re going to do it, they need both of them alive going into Season 4.
It strongly suggests the showrunners plan to adapt this exact battle — not skip it or change it into something minor.

But Wait — Why It Means Season 3 Might Be Twisted or Stretched

Here’s the thing: in the book, the Battle of the Gods Eye happens not a whole lot of time after the Season 2 finale in the war. If the show is saving Battle of the God’s Eye for Season 4, it means Season 3 probably won’t strictly follow the book’s pacing.

That would not be surprising — HotD has already made some changes (or delays) compared to Fire & Blood. For example, Battle of the Gullet, a huge naval conflict, was teased to be the premiere of Season 3 rather than being somewhere in Season 2 (which is widely considered to be a filler season). So it’s plausible that the show might stretch out some book events, reshuffle them, or give more screen time to character arcs, rather than condensing everything.

In short, it looks like they’re saving their biggest dragon duel for Season 4. This sure builds hype but also means they’re pacing things out more deliberately. What are your predictions for the House of the Dragon’s new seasons? Do you think the Daemon-Aemond face-off will be dragged to the last season?

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