The direct sequel to the highest grossing movie of all time, Avatar is coming out this year – Avatar: The Way of Water. Yeah, no pressure then. The sequel has been in the works for a long time as James Cameron, director of Avatar wanted to expand on the world created by it. After Disney’s acquisition of Fox, they not only green lit the sequel rather other 3 follow-up films as well that are suppose to release at the 2 year interval. The studio has sure put in a lot of trust in Cameron and given his track record with Box Office numbers, it checks out. Earlier this year we’d gotten our first look at the sequel as the official teaser was released by Disney. Since then we’ve been getting small nuggets of information and footages for the sequel but no official trailer yet.
Some official images have been released that give us an idea of what specific characters will look like in the sequel. Like Kate Winslet’s Na’vi. Considering the budget the sequel is being made on i.e., $250 million it is fair to say Cameron is cooking something meaty for the audiences. The visuals in the film might and should be better than the original, the heavy post production work might be the reason behind the trailer being delayed. That being said, Disney has been showcasing new footages from the film at many events. None of these footages have surfaced online. The most recent one was showcased in China to ease the relation between the US and the land of the Dragon. This is a move from the studio to increase the possibility of box office success as China is one of the biggest markets for such films. So, let’s take a look how much does the sequel needs to earn to be deemed as a successful film?
Avatar: The Way of Water Is An Exception When It Comes To Box Office Success!
Avatar 2 is not made on the biggest budget ever. It is considerably less given the scale of the film. It is definitely not cheap but still not out of the world. So given the normal definition of success in Hollywood if Avatar makes more than double its budget i.e. $500 Million+ then the sequel will cover the cost of making it. However, when it comes to a film being considered to be a blockbuster mostly crossing the $1 Billion mark does it.
It’s an exclusive club occupied by only 51 releases but that is exactly what I am talking about Avatar 2 is not a normal film that will be changed based on the normal definition of success. When you’re the sequel to the biggest film of all time, you have a point to prove. Given that the first one has minted $2.8 Billion it is certainly unfair to expect the sequel to pass the original or earn as much as it especially because the original film came out 13 years ago and the impact of the same has been sublimated.
Not to mention, at the time of the original film the entire 3D fad was just starting but now as it stands the craze for 3D has died out or at least as been normalized. So, what is the number that will make the sequel be considered a financial success. Considering the first film’s record-breaking antics, the James Cameron factor, and Avatar 2’s epic scale, even grossing in the region of $1.5 billion smells of underperformance (though wouldn’t be an abject horror show in the current climate).
In a June 2022 Empire interview, James Cameron admitted Avatar 2 pulling in “20 percent or 30 percent less… would be bad.” Avatar’s original theatrical run (deducting subsequent re-releases) scored $2.7 billion, so by Cameron-math, even $1.8-2.1 billion is less-than-ideal for Avatar 2. Crazy as it may sound, that concession begins to make more sense when taking into account the surprise recent prosperity of Top Gun: Maverick (currently around $1.4 billion). If Tom Cruise in a plane can pull such numbers, the Na’vi should rightly expect to surpass him.
True success for Avatar 2, therefore, probably does begin at $2 billion. At the very least, James Cameron being able to claim he directed half of Hollywood’s entire “$2 billion club” would deflect conversation away from Avatar 2 making up to $700 million less than the original. The film’s critical acclaim and audience reception will not change this number as a film like this has to earn money. However, if your film is going to underperform you’d rather have it be critically acclaimed.
The future of the Avatar franchise depends on this film, let’s hope the film is great that proves every skeptical audience member wrong.
Check out the full Teaser Trailer of Avatar: The Way of Water on YouTube:
Avatar: The Way of Water is slated to release on 16th December 2022.
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