Back in 2018, DC had its biggest box office triumph with Aquaman. Now, DC is giving us the sequel to that film. This is also the last film of DCEU. Any DC project after Lost Kingdom will either be under James Gunn’s DCU or a DC Elseworlds story like Matt Reeves’ Batman or Todd Phillips’s Joker. The sequel has been in the works for a long time but was a victim to delays. Despite its predecessor being DC’s only billion movie except for the TDK trilogy, it doesn’t look like the sequel will repeat Aquaman’s heroics. There is already too much negativity about the film on the internet. We already know that all the test screenings for the film have been terrible. Given DC’s recent run at the box office it looks like Aquaman 2 is going to follow a similar path as The Flash, Blue Beetle and Shazam! Fury of the Gods.
Aquaman 2 Will Most Likely Bomb!
Despite releasing on one of the most profitable weekends of the year (Christmas), Aquaman 2 is only projected to earn around $40 million in its first four days of release at best. The forecast also sees Aquaman 2’s entire domestic run earning anywhere between $105 million and $168 million. For comparison, Aquaman had an opening weekend of $67.8 million. Additionally, early presales for tickets are tracking about 25% ahead of Shazam! 2 ($30 million opening weekend), but 62% behind Black Adam ($67 million opening weekend), with the holiday season potentially helping on that front.
For a film mounted on an astronomical budget of $205 million, thanks to extensive reshoots, these are awful numbers which will certainly result in a fourth consecutive box office failure for DC. The Flash has emerged to be the Highest Grosser for DC this year but with only $270 million global collection ($108 million domestic figures). The studio had spend over $300 million on production and marketing, resulting in the biggest flop in DC history.
Considering everything, one might easily assume that Aquaman 2 won’t work at the box office. Well back in 2018, no projections predicted that Aquaman would cross $1 billion at the box office. The reviews were dull and given DC’s box office history everyone was expecting another mediocre box office venture. The James Wan directorial surprised everyone and became DCEU’s highest grosser. Given the Christmas season and Jason Momoa’s popularity you can’t rule out that the sequel may defy expectations once again and break even ($410 million).
However, one must also consider that superhero movies were “the thing” in 2018, so, it was very difficult for a superhero movie to bomb. Cut to 2023, superhero movies are not working. In fact, the only successful superhero movie of 2023 is Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. So, the leap of faith math that I mentioned above, may be unrealistic. Well, the film releases in a matter of two weeks we’ll definitely know then.
The sequel just like the original is helmed by James Wan and stars Jason Momoa in the titular role along with Yahya Abdul Mateen II, Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard and Nicole Kidman.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is slated to release in theatres on 22nd December 2023.
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